The 2025 holiday shopping season looks different. Rising prices, tariff uncertainty, the prolonged government shutdown, and general economic anxiety are reshaping how people approach the holidays. 

The numbers tell the story. Consumer spending expectations are down 5% from last year (the first notable decline since 2020), and 7 in 10 shoppers will actively seek out more value, like trading down to affordable retailers and using flexible payment options. This value-consciousness has also changed timing, with nearly two-thirds of consumers starting holiday shopping before Black Friday – and as many as 30% starting in September.  

But the shift goes deeper than timing. Technology is fundamentally changing shopping habits. AI-powered shopping traffic has surged more than 500% year-over-year, with half of consumers planning to use AI tools for research. Mobile now dominates with 56% of online holiday sales happening on smartphones. And social commerce continues to explode, particularly on TikTok where 70% of Gen Z discovers products.

For retailers, understanding this landscape means looking at the underlying behaviors driving change. Here we’ll explore eight key trends we identified that are shaping how Americans shop this holiday season.

Group 9@2x

The Extended Holiday Timeline

Black Friday as the official kickoff to holiday shopping is a thing of the past. With consumer behavior driving a decisive shift toward earlier engagement, the holiday season now effectively runs from September to December. Economic anxiety has shoppers spreading budgets over longer timeframes rather than waiting until November and December. After years of high inflation and prices that still don't feel normal, people are comparing options and hunting for the best deals throughout the Fall. Combine that with FOMO over popular items selling out - and years of pre-Black Friday conditioning, training us to expect early promotions - and we’re seeing the entire timeline shift. The result? Retailers have moved up their promotional calendars to get in front of consumers early and capitalize on early shoppers. The traditional November spending surge is now a slow, sustained Fall push, reshaping inventory planning, marketing budgets, and revenue forecasting.
Group 10@2x

Generational Divides in Spending Behavior

One of the most striking findings this year is the generational split in consumer behavior. With Gen Z navigating a tough job market while having a limited financial cushion, it makes sense that they’re planning the most dramatic budget reductions compared to other age groups. At the same time, this generation leads in the adoption of new technologies and is most heavily influenced by social media and influencer marketing. Compare that to Baby Boomers who tend to stick to more traditional shopping patterns with greater spending stability. The impact on retail? Life stage, values, and financial circumstances create vastly different holiday shopping situations for different generations. This underscores the importance of segmentation as brands recognize that 25-year-olds and 55-year-olds want completely different things. Gen Z's tight budgets combined with digital fluency means they respond well to value-driven offerings promoted through social channels, while older generations still respond to conventional marketing and premium positioning. 
Group 8@2x

AI-Powered Shopping

Perhaps the most significant shift this year is how quickly consumers have adopted AI. While it accounted for less than 1% of shopping traffic in 2024, over half of consumers now plan to use AI tools for product research, recommendations, deal finding, and gift inspiration. What’s interesting is how AI-driven shoppers behave differently: they spend 32% longer on retail sites, view 10% more pages per visit, and show 27% lower bounce rates. However, conversion rates still trail non-AI traffic, meaning these shoppers are mostly in research mode.  The response? Retailers are now optimizing for AI discovery, structuring product information for AI consumption, and building their own AI shopping assistants to meet consumers where they’re researching.
Group 7@2x

Hyper-Personalization

Personalization is continuing to evolve, with dynamic, real-time experiences that adapt recommendations, pricing, and content based on individual behavior leading the way. Consumers expect individualized experiences based on [near] real-time behavior, with the majority of younger shoppers preferring contextual recommendations vs the traditional strategy of focusing solely on past purchase data.  The impact on retail: This shift requires a move beyond basic segmentation to dynamic, real-time experiences. AI is being used to adjust recommendations, pricing, and content based on individual behavior patterns as they happen. The most successful brands are creating experiences that feel custom-built for each shopper in the moment, not based on who they were last month.
Group 5@2x

Mobile-First Commerce Dominance

Mobile devices now drive over half of all holiday purchases, accounting for more than 90% of net ecommerce growth. This isn’t about preference; it’s a fundamental shift in how, when, and where shopping happens. From browsing deals on the go, comparing prices in physical stores, to completing purchases after midnight, constant connectivity means shopping can happen anytime and anywhere. Combine mobile payment options that have eliminated checkout friction with an overall better mobile experience, and small-screen shopping is now incredibly convenient. The result? Mobile-first design is a necessity, not a best practice. Fast load times, simplified navigation, and streamlined checkout now separate successful brands from those who struggle to keep up. Meanwhile, email marketing needs to work as a one-handed interaction, with short, concise copy and CTAs above the fold. Retailers treating mobile as an afterthought will likely lose substantial market share.
Group 6@2x

Value-Seeking and the Rise of BNPL

With 70% of shoppers engaging in active value-seeking behaviors, 2025 is the most price-conscious holiday season since the pandemic. This goes beyond discount hunting. Consumers are trading down to affordable retailers, using BNPL for budget control, and dedicating 40% of holiday budgets to secondhand gifts (up from 30%, on average). The impact on retail: BNPL has become a competitive must-have, as promotional intensity has ramped up. In fact, retailers offering it see 91% higher average order values for enterprises and 62% higher for small businesses*. The combination of promotional pressure, flexible payment, and growing resale channels is forcing brands to compete on multiple value dimensions simultaneously. *Some of this year’s spending increase may reflect higher prices vs. increased volume, according to recent data.
Group 4@2x

Loyalty Over Discounts & the BOPIS Boom

An interesting countertrend is emerging, as we're seeing brands shift from a discount-driven acquisition strategy to loyalty-first experiences. Promotional fatigue has almost certainly diminished discounting effectiveness, while margin pressure makes steep price drops unsustainable. At the same time, BOPIS (Buy Online Pickup In Store) sales are projected to increase this year, with 85% of pickup users making additional purchases in-store. The impact? Many brands are reserving the best offers and early access for loyalty members instead of broadcasting them universally, emphasizing priority access over lower prices. BOPIS is capitalizing on this loyalty trend, as shoppers who pick up orders in-store create upsell opportunities and deeper engagement that pure e-commerce can't replicate. Together, these strategies position brands for sustainable growth beyond the constant discounting cycle.
Group 3@2x

Social Commerce and Authenticity Demands

Social media has evolved from a discovery platform to a commerce channel. However, trust and authenticity have become critical purchase factors with content creator recommendations seeing dramatic growth. While trust levels have increased, consumer vigilance about review authenticity has intensified. Up to 50% of consumers now actively examine reviews for manipulation, up from 40% last year. Consumers are constantly bombarded with information and are increasingly leaning on trusted voices and social proof. Consumers can tell the difference between authentic recommendations and sponsored content, resulting in the rise of micro-influencers (those with 10K-100K followers) who offer relatability and niche expertise over celebrity endorsements. The impact? User-generated content (UGC) and authentic customer voices have become as important as brand-created materials. Retailers are investing in review platforms, encouraging customer photo submissions, and creating branded hashtag campaigns that amplify organic conversations. The most successful approaches blend influencer partnerships with genuine customer advocacy, using AI to identify and surface authentic positive experiences while being transparent about sponsored relationships. The Path Forward These trends paint a clear picture - today's shopping environment requires flexibility, personalization, and authentic value delivery. Retailers must recognize that early engagement, mobile-first experiences, AI integration, flexible payment options, loyalty-driven value, and authentic social proof have become non-negotiables. It’s clear that the brands thriving this season are the ones meeting consumers where they are, not where they used to be. Survey Timing: Several consumer sentiment surveys (notably PwC and Deloitte) were conducted between June-October 2025, prior to the actual holiday shopping period. Consumer behavior evolved as the season progressed, though major trends held true. Projections vs. Actuals: Where possible, this analysis incorporates actual Black Friday/Cyber Monday results from late November/early December 2025. Pre-season projections have been validated against actual performance data. Inflation Context: Some spending increases reflect higher prices rather than increased volume. Data indicates prices rose 7% while order volumes declined 1% during BFCM 2025. Geographic Scope: Unless otherwise noted, research findings reflect U.S. consumer behavior and may not apply to other markets. AI Usage Growth: Year-over-year AI traffic comparisons measure against minimal 2024 baseline (less than 1% of traffic), contributing to dramatic percentage increases.

 

The Path Forward:

These trends paint a clear picture – today’s shopping environment requires flexibility, personalization, and authentic value delivery. Retailers must recognize that early engagement, mobile-first experiences, AI integration, flexible payment options, loyalty-driven value, and authentic social proof have become non-negotiables. It’s clear that the brands thriving this season are the ones meeting consumers where they are, not where they used to be.

 

Survey Timing:
 Several consumer sentiment surveys (notably PwC and Deloitte) were conducted between June-October 2025, prior to the actual holiday shopping period. Consumer behavior evolved as the season progressed, though major trends held true.

Projections vs. Actuals: Where possible, this analysis incorporates actual Black Friday/Cyber Monday results from late November/early December 2025. Pre-season projections have been validated against actual performance data.

Inflation Context: Some spending increases reflect higher prices rather than increased volume. Data indicates prices rose 7% while order volumes declined 1% during BFCM 2025.

Geographic Scope: Unless otherwise noted, research findings reflect U.S. consumer behavior and may not apply to other markets.

AI Usage Growth: Year-over-year AI traffic comparisons measure against minimal 2024 baseline (less than 1% of traffic), contributing to dramatic percentage increases.

Author
Anna Headshot
Anna Michaud
ListEngage Strategic Consultant

Anna is a seasoned Strategic Consultant with over 15 years of marketing experience. She has worked across a variety of industries and spent over a decade managing successful cross-channel customer lifecycle marketing programs. She has in-depth knowledge of CRM, customer journeys, analytics, reporting, and overall program optimization & strategy. With Anna’s guidance and expertise, her clients have continued to achieve & exceed their marketing goals.

ListEngage Editorial Team
Fred 2
Fred Homner

Director of Customer Success & Salesforce Practices 

Sam Kosakowski
Sam Kosakowski

Solution Architect

Zanah Kagan
Zanah Kagan

Marketing Cloud Practice Lead 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *